How the Ashes will be won and lost

With Australia going into the Ashes series against England on Thursday as overwhelming favourites, home captain Nasser Hussain will have isolated several key areas where his side must excel if they wish to compete.

The Mental Battle

If confidence alone decided sporting encounters, Australia should win 5-0. Sixteen test wins in a row confirmed their world supremacy, despite the ensuing glitch of a 2-1 series defeat in India. A comprehensive victory in the just-concluded one-day series against Pakistan and England -- who lost all six of their matches including being bowled out for 86 by the Australians -- will have strengthened Aussie self-belief.

Captain Steve Waugh will doubtless translate that into some choice words to help accelerate his opponents' "mental disintegration".

Hussain, relatively unscathed after missing the triangular one-day series, will prefer to forget the last few months -- which also included an England collapse to defeat against Pakistan in the second test at Old Trafford.

Instead, he will hark back to the mental resilience that helped his side grind out laudable series wins in Sri Lanka and Pakistan around the turn of the year.

In a sense, however, Hussain has been forced to concede ground to Waugh by not only acknowledging the Australians as the world's best but also by saying that he is as interested in how his injury-hit side competes as in the results.

Scoring rates

If Australia's batting and bowling were not formidable enough, it is the way they dictate the pace of matches which makes them so dangerous.

They regularly score at between three and four an over, always giving their bowlers a chance to bowl out the opposition twice. In the first test in India in February, they scored 349 in 73.2 overs in the first innings.

England are far more conservative, looking to establish a solid if unspectacular platform before gauging their chances of victory. Over their last 10 tests, they have averaged 2.45 an over -- 220 a day -- while the Australians over the same period made 3.43 an over, adding up to 90 more runs per day.

Head-to-Heads

The series will throw up a series of confrontations but none more important than that between Michael Atherton and Glenn McGrath. The omens for England are not good.

Cricketing bible Wisden has calculated that, in a direct head-to-head, the English opener averages just 12 against Australia's main strike bowler. He also loses his wicket once every two innings to the pace bowler.

More worryingly for England, McGrath appears to have begun his homework on Atherton's opening partner, bowling him both times in their last two meetings in the recent triangular one-day series. The final encounter, at The Oval, lasted just six balls before Marcus Trescothick returned to the pavilion without scoring.

The England tail

England's recent run of success -- four wins and one draw in five test series -- has been built to a large extent on shoring up their batting. The traditional English collapse seemed to have been consigned to history as the tailenders began to contribute with the bat at long last.

But that vulnerability returned with a vengeance in the second test against Pakistan as England lost their last eight wickets for 75 in the first innings at Old Trafford and eight for 60 in the second.

The'SHANE WARNE FACTOR'

Shane Warne may have been ground down by injuries in recent years but he remains among the spinning elite. He has also feasted on Englishmen ever since removing Mike Gatting in 1993 with "The ball of the century", taking 34 wickets in his first series, 27 in 1994/95 and 24 in 1997.

England, in contrast, are short of spinning options, a weakness made all the more glaring if left-armer Ashley Giles is ruled out with tonsilitis. It is hard to see how they will force a win on a fifth-day turning pitch.

Luck

Considering the Australians' all-round supremacy, England will need plenty of good fortune to have any real chance. Well-timed rain showers on appropriately prepared seaming pitches would help for a start.

The tosses will also be important. England are due for a little luck in this department, having lost 11 spins of the coin in the last 12 tests. The last time the two sides met, in 1998/99, Mark Taylor won all five tosses.

Mail Cricket Editor