However, as even a cursory glance at the respective records of England and New Zealand reveals, they do indicate the way to bet.
England begin their buildup to the 2009 Ashes challenge with two three-match Test series against New Zealand, starting with three Tests away in March after a one-day series this month.
After losing in Sri Lanka last year they lie fifth in the International Cricket Council (ICC) rankings, two places ahead of New Zealand.
More pertinently, while England's likely top six batsmen all average over 40, New Zealand have no current player who has reached the accepted benchmark for a good international batsman.
The starkest statistic, though, concerns Shane Bond who for once is fit but who will not play after signing for the rebel Indian Cricket League
With the 32-year-old express bowler on the field, New Zealand have won nine Tests, drawn six and lost two. Without him they have won six and lost 13.
New Zealand have traditionally specialised in opening batsmen of unlimited concentration but strictly limited ability and medium-fast bowlers for whom the term "honest toiler" could have been coined.
FUNDAMENTAL WEAKNESSES
A sprinkling of genuine Test-class cricketers has kept them competitive over the years and they are still more than a useful one-day side, beating Australia 3-0 last year and going on to qualify for the World Cup semi-finals for the fifth time.
Captain Daniel Vettori is probably the best orthodox spinner in the world and the all-round abilities of Scott Styris, Jacob Oram and wicketkeeper Brendan McCullum make them worthy opponents in limited-overs matches.
Test cricket examines fundamental weaknesses more stringently and New Zealand, who won Test series against every other side in the world in the golden 1980s, are now ahead of only West Indies and Bangladesh in the rankings.
New Zealand will still fight to the last man and it would be unwise for England to take them lightly.
Their medium-pacers can be a handful on their seam-friendly pitches and they bat down the order. An interesting figure published in February's "Wisden Cricketer" revealed that their tailenders averaged more than any other nation, including Australia, in Tests between Jan. 1, 2005, and Dec. 13 last year.
Still, if England are to show they can mount a serious challenge to Australia next year, they need to beat New Zealand and beat them convincingly.
Former captain Nasser Hussain, who with coach Duncan Fletcher started the England revival after they were defeated by the New Zealanders in 1999, believes England have the raw materials to construct another world-beating side.
FLINTOFF RETURN
"The area of concern for me is mental; they need toughening up," Hussain wrote in "Wisden Cricketer".
"There is a softness about some of the batsmen that is preventing them delivering the big runs. There is a sense that being England players is enough."
Batting remains the team's potential strength and the priority must be to find a reliable wicketkeeper/batsman, after Matt Prior was jettisoned for dropping too many catches, a reliable slip cordon and an attack capable of bowling out the Australians twice.
On the latter front there was good news this week when the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) announced that Andrew Flintoff would join the shadow side playing in the Duleep Trophy in India.
Flintoff, who has endured four operations on his fragile left ankle, may never be the all-round force he was in 2005. But he is still only 30 and not only adds balance to the England side but also has an incalculable effect on morale.
