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The TINA factor

Even professional BJP-baiters suddenly realise the power of the 'TINA factor'. Coined a decade ago, the acronym recalls Margaret Thatcher's famous boast" "There is no alternative!"

It is as true of India today as it was of Britain then. Last week I explored how the CPI-M -- an essential member of any non-BJP grouping -- is struggling for relevance. This leaves it no time to cobble up a non-BJP ministry.

Today, let us look at some of the other key players, and why they also are too busy with internal problems to upset the government. I have ventured to take one example each from Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, and Madras.

As expected, Sharad Pawar is doing his best to strew thorns in Sonia Gandhi's path. But the Maratha strongman would pull back from the brink if left to himself. He left the Congress once before, in the wake of the Emergency, and doesn't want to repeat that history. He would rather wait for Sonia Gandhi to stumble through sheer lack of experience.

But a wait-and-watch policy doesn't suit Pawar's followers. They became marked men by engineering the defeat of Ram Pradhan, Sonia Gandhi's handpicked nominee, in the Rajya Sabha election from Maharashtra. Pressed to waive disciplinary action, the Congress president spoke grimly of 'accountability'. Sonia Gandhi needs to establish control over the Congress before dreaming of Race Course road.

Let us turn now to the BJP's partners, beginning with the oldest of its allies, the Shiv Sena. Bal Thackeray is unable to take advantage of the rift in the Congress because he has his hands full with Chief Minister Manohar Joshi. Thackeray sees Joshi as a threat to his family's control over the party.

Such a perception puts a ceiling on the aspirations of anyone in the party. Ask Chaggan Bhujbal, now Congress leader in the Maharashtra legislature but once a leading light in the Shiv Sena. Unlike Bhujbal, however, Joshi won't leave the party. The chief minister's preferred solution is to split the Congress, thus diluting Thackeray's hold on the Treasury bench.

So will we see Pawar and Joshi sharing a platform in the next election? Both Sonia Gandhi and Bal Thackeray would love to know the answer to that question.

Turn now to Calcutta. The Trinamul Congress did rather well for a beginner in the recent local body election. The CPI-M's share of votes came down by a hefty eight per cent. However, the Marxists succeeded in retaining most of their seats thanks to India's first-past-the-post electoral system.

That leaves Mamata Bannerjee with several disgruntled followers. They haven't won enough offices in West Bengal, and ministerships in Delhi are out of reach thanks to their leader's decision to offer nothing more than 'support from outside.'

Finally, the lady's autocratic whimsies -- a remnant of her days in the Congress? -- are infuriating her senior colleagues. The president of the West Bengal unit has already rejoined the parent Congress. Given all this, playing games in Delhi is the last thing that Mamata Bannerjee wants to do just now.

Last but not least, Madras. Nobody has done more to underline the fragility of the Vajpayee ministry than the leader of the largest non-BJP group on the government benches. Jayalalitha has been playing games ever since the results of the Lok Sabha polls came in. Can this continue forever?

The source of Jayalalitha's power is her claim that she controls the thirty members from Tamil Nadu who fought as part of her alliance. But three of those thirty are BJP members, and they won't break party discipline for Jayalalitha's sake. The MDMK, which has three Lok Sabha members, has denounced imposition of President's rule in Tamil Nadu -- a key AIADMK demand. Vazhapadi Ramamurthi has followed suit. The PMK, another in Jayalalitha's front, is cautiously neutral.

Can Jayalalitha even count on the eighteen Lok Sabha members belonging to her own AIADMK? Her arch rival, Karunanidhi, is an expert at fishing in troubled waters. At the end of the day, she may find only Dr Subramanian Swamy to keep her company.

So there we have it. In Delhi, Sonia Gandhi struggles to keep control of the Congress. In Bombay, Bal Thackeray finds his remote control is malfunctioning. In Calcutta, Mamata Bannerjee has her hands full. And in Madras, Jayalalitha is in danger of being left empty-handed.

Is this enough to bring about a realignment of forces as some predict? Well, maybe. And far sooner, perhaps, than most people suspect.

T V R Shenoy