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Saisuresh Sivaswamy

With friends like these, the BJP doesn't need enemies

If it is anybody's case that the swearing-in of the A B Vajpayee government -- now not only a certainty, but also a cinch that it won't go the way of his earlier 13-day misdemeanour -- will put an end to the political uncertainty that has remained with us since 1991, then the antics of the BJP's allies should serve to demolish such a hope.

So predictable have these so-called comrades in arms been that it is obvious, with friends like these, the BJP does not need enemies.

In fact, the biggest threat -- or, challenge, it depends on how you look at it -- to the Vajpayee government will come not from the shenanigans of Mulayam, Amar Singh et al, but from the BJP's putative friends who have fought the election side by side but now are unable to stay together when power beckons.

If India's experience with coalitions is limited, the BJP's is even more so. Their experience is restricted to Maharashtra -- where its allies share a common faith in Hindutva as well as power -- and to Punjab, where the BJP and Akali Dal came together to fight a common enemy, the Congress.

The BJP's experience in Uttar Pradesh, where they took a calculated risk by propping up Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party, a party which represents the other end of the political spectrum, is too recent to need reminding. It also shows up the pitfalls of coalition governments, where the partners are not attuned to each other's wavelength.

And it is obvious even to the unseeing that the prospective BJP government in New Delhi will suffer from the same failing. Even the most diehard BJP supporter cannot claim that keeping in check disparate and combustible characters like Subramanian Swamy and George Fernandes, not to mention middle of the roaders like Maneka Gandhi and Ramakrishna Hegde, will be an easy task. It is just as well, perhaps, that Vajpayee's ministerial experience revolves around international diplomacy, he will need to find hitherto untapped sources of not only diplomacy and tact, but also energy to tackle the vexations of heading a multi-party, multi-ideology government.

Given these potholes on the path to power, even the most sanguine RSS sarsangchalak at Nagpur cannot believe that Vajpayee's government will complete its full term of five years in office. Personally, I feel the BJP government would last two years (even that sounds over-optimistic), though I would rather it lasted out the full course. Of course, no one gave P V Narasimha Rao an outside chance of hanging out there for five years in 1991, so don't be too surprised if the BJP flatters him through imitation.

The United Front's biggest weakness was that it was being supported from the outside by the Congress, which was willing to go to any extent to keep the BJP out of office, even if it meant a temporary truce with its regional foes. The instability arose because the two groups were fighting over the same votebank. Things would have been better for the UF if the Congress had joined its government, but doing so would have seriously compromised the latter. There is no way then, that it could have salvaged even its figleaf with the electorate. Also, the longer the Congress allowed the UF to remain in office, it was signing its own electoral death warrant, and it was this, more than any other factor, that impelled Sitaram Kesri to pull the plug on first H D Deve Gowda and then I K Gujral.

Thankfully for the BJP, it does not suffer from such a conflict of interests. It is not in combat with any of its allies in any part of India, at least not yet. But, the instability is inherent owing to various parties's decision to not join the BJP government but to merely support it from the outside. What it means is that these allies retain the freedom to criticise the government over any unpopular measure, even while taking credit for the positive decisions. And, it is well known that the honeymoon between the administration and the administered, starts to sour in roughly two years. It is when the seven-year itch sets in that you need support, and it is then that one knows friend from foe.

Parties like the AIADMK, which refuse to go along with participating in the government, also realise that joining the government would curtail their freedom, and compromise an important pressure point. Obviously, one would think twice before pulling down the government of which one is part, it is easier to derail it when your MPs don't have ministerial perks to influence their thinking in the other direction.

It is not as if the BJP does not realise the toughness of the job on hand. It knows that barring the Shiv Sena, there is no ideological compatibility with any of its other allies, which is why it readily agreed to dump the more controversial issues on its agenda and made itself more agreeable. Now, it hopes, the focus will be on good governance.

And, while it may not be in conflict with any of its allies, as of this moment, there is no reason that it will avoid a Congress-UF like tussle for supremacy, a fight between the head and the tail over who is wagging the dog. What it has in the serried ranks of its friends and allies, are some very loose cannons who will think nothing tomorrow of turning on the BJP if it suits their narrower interests.

The inordinate delay on the part of the AIADMK and its allies -- not the BJP's -- to trot out something as simple and basic as letters of support, thanks to which the BJP's prime ministerial candidate could not keep his date with the President on Wednesday, was just a soupcon. The main course is yet to follow, and it should have more than a fair dose of Tamilian masala when served at the BJP's buffet, and should test Vajpayee's palate more than his seasonal iftaari.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy