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The Rediff Special/ Shalab Kumar

The Indian electorate is caught in a trap

Is there a message in the 1998 election results? The recent history of elections in India has an interesting tale to tell:

1989: Rajiv Gandhi's government gets a thumbs down from the electorate and V P Singh gets the nod in.
1991: Elections are forced on the country on a flimsy pretext; The V P Singh-led alliance, recently out of power, loses its mandate.
1996: Narasimha Rao's government gets a drubbing. No other pre-poll alliance gets a clear verdict.
1998: No clear verdict again, except the complete rejection of the existing governing alliance.

See a trend here?

Much has been said already about the fragmentation of the vote, the loss of the pre-eminence of the Congress and the era of multi-party coalitions. What has not been talked about enough is the only common factor in all these elections -- the 'anti-incumbency factor'.

The governing party has now been rejected in four consecutive general elections. In the current election, the rejection of the governing party has worked at two levels -- the rejection of the central governing alliance, the United Front, and a widespread rejection of state governments. Resoundingly true in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka and Assam, and also evident in Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal, Orissa and Bihar. Notable exceptions are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Punjab among the larger states. I think the verdict in Uttar Pradesh would have been a stronger vote against a party only if a clear governing party could be identified. The BJP-led government has been in power for only a few months, the BSP before that had a short-term of six months, preceded by President's rule, leading to an unclear target for people's ire.

The anti-incumbency factor cuts across party-lines. If it is the BJP in Maharashtra and Rajasthan, it is the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Orissa, the Janata Dal in Karnataka and the regional constituents of the UF in Tamil Nadu, AP and Assam.

The message couldn't be clearer. To understand that one only needs to evaluate this anti-incumbency factor and what it means. Anti-incumbency is not an electoral technicality bandied by the psephologists. It is a very strong electoral message. In an earlier article I had talked about how each election is simultaneously an evaluation of past performance and a selection for the future. Well, the verdict on past performance is loud and clear --unacceptable, below par, not satisfactory… The interesting thing about the message is that every major party has been found unacceptable in some part of the country.

This should not come as a surprise to anyone. Every individual evaluates the government of the day against what it has done to improve the quality of one's life. Our basic problems remain unchanged -- high levels of poverty, food and water shortages, illiteracy, unemployment, law and order problems, corruption at most levels, dirty and unhygienic living conditions, pollution... the list is long. The problems are so widespread that the quality of life of each individual is below par. When dissatisfaction is so prevalent, the expectations from the government are naturally high. We want the governments, at the Centre and the states, to focus on these problems, formulate programmes to alleviate them and to implement these effectively and efficiently. We want the government to make a difference to our lives.

Unfortunately for us, far from giving us good governance, the political parties of all hues have given us no governance. That should also not come as much of a surprise to anyone. The political parties, in the last decade or so, have given up even the pretence of governance for the good of the people. That is the reason why the 'good of the people' does not even figure in the pre-election sloganeering -- remember 'garibi hatao', 'a government that works'? The BJP continues mouthing its commitment to the Ram mandir, Sonia talks about the sacrifices of the family. Will the Ram mandir reduce poverty and unemployment? Is the sacrifice of the Nehru-Gandhi family more than that of the family in village Daulatpur, Etah which has lived for generations on a single meal or no meal every day?

The voter has the choice of rejection but really no choice of selection. He can choose to reject the governing party, but, in the absence of an alternative which offers good governance, or at least the promise of an honest attempt, he has to select from the same old parties. That is the reason why Tamil Nadu voters voted for Jayalalitha and Maharashtra voted for the Congress.

Put yourself in the Tamil voter's shoes and you will understand the dilemma we face as a country. On one hand you have a government which chooses to ignore intelligence about bombings that leave scores of people dead; on the other an alliance led by a leader who epitomises corruption in political life. Since the elections are the only opportunity that we have to exercise some control over our politicians, some of us choose to at least reject the current government. Somewhere there is an optimist in us who believes that things might get better, if Jayalalitha is given a second chance. They will not -- she did not make any such promise.

The electorate is caught in a trap. While the vote is only a rejection of the current governing party, it simultaneously conveys acceptance of another. Thus, Sharad Pawar and the Congress see the rejection of the BJP-Shiv Sena in Maharashtra as acceptance of them and Jayalalitha believes the Tamil voter wants the grand days of 'Amma's rule' back. The reality is that the electorate has not been given a right to reject both, resulting in a twisted, if convenient, interpretation of the electoral verdict.

The electorate in four consecutive general elections has given a strong message of rejection. It has rejected the Congress and the Janata Dal-led experiments twice each. If this year's elections are any indicator, it is already getting ready to reject the BJP as well.

The BJP could, of course, actually end up providing good governance. That's the optimist in me speaking! In that case, it might get another chance because a government focused on the greater good is all that the electorate wants. The more likely scenario, however, is that the new government, led by the BJP, will be little different from the farce of the last couple of years, given the pulls and contradictions of coalition governance. In that case we are likely to get a re-run of the 1998 electoral sham once again in the near future.

I hope I am wrong.

The Rediff Special

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