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Saisuresh Sivaswamy

The line-up for the finals

The change of guard at All India Congress Committee, in which the effete Sitaram Kesri made reluctant way to Sonia Gandhi, has infused life into what V P Singh has termed as the finals of the ongoing series between conflicting political forces.

To carry Singh's analogy a little further, Congressmen obviously believe that Sonia is their Shane Warne, while the Bharatiya Janata Party hopes that its 'man of the moment' will do a Tendulkar. As Chepauk and Eden Gardens have shown, the contest promises to be an engrossing one.

Madras and Calcutta prove that battles are not won by individuals, but by teamwork, strategy and morale, perhaps not in that order. And right now, what the Congress is doing is bank on an individual alone, without looking at whether the organisation is battle-fit or at the morale of its lieutenants and the cadre.

And, judging from what the latest president of the 113-year old party has been doing, she seems to be aware of her party's weaknesses, and also seems keen on addressing them before going to war.

Even her worst critics cannot deny that her entry into the political theatre at a late stage had the effect of stopping the BJP juggernaut from rolling into New Delhi, even if she couldn't turn the tide in favour of her party. But what her exertions, her blitzkrieg across the length and breadth of the country showed was that with time, she could win the votes back to her party.

Right now, what she needs is time. And right now, with her decision to abstain from staking her party's claim to forming a government, she has bought herself just that.

Staying away from power, for a power-hungry party like the Congress, is not as simple as it sounds. Nor was it a deception, as many think it was. The Left parties, which have virtually hijacked the United Front, in their eagerness to prevent the BJP from coming to power were willing to go to any extent, including supporting the Congress's bid, if it made the move. And it is to Sonia's credit that she refrained from playing ball with a group of disparate and inimical parties that sought to use her party for their personal ends.

It is also significant that the President invited the BJP to have another crack at government-formation, only after the Congress made it known to him that it was not willing to step into the vacuum "just now".

Sonia Gandhi, as of this moment, is reluctant to form a minority government with the support of numerous 'allies', and it seems a fair reading of her mind that she would rather focus on building up the party into a fighting machine, by infusing enthusiasm and building morale, that can win a majority on its own in the next election, rather than be taken in by Surjeet's and Mulayam's sophistry.

It is just possible that events in the near future may force her to alter this line of thinking.

What is interesting is that the BJP too is focusing on the next election, to win a simple majority on its own. But while the Congress is hoping to do so by sitting in the opposition and making life miserable for the ruling front, the BJP expects to win hosannas by providing a clean, corruption-free and efficient administration.

Again, both the sides need time to do what they have set out to do within the 12th Lok Sabha.

It would not be in the Congress's interests to be seen as pulling down this government, not before it has lived down the criticism that it brought down two governments within one year. Nor would it want to display such adventurism, since there would really no choice before it then but to agree to a Congress-led coalition, and one in which it is dependent on its regional foes for survival in office.

The 12th Lok Sabha will, thus, witness sparring between the BJP and the Congress, as the sides gird their loins in anticipation of the final which should hopefully take place in the new millenium.

In this seesaw battle, the Congress holds the upper hand, simply because it is the government that is more vulnerable to criticism, especially if it were to be so heavily dependent on a handful of members's abstention to push through even the most innocuous of legislations. The speaker's election, thus, should not see much of a contest, and it is actually in the BJP's interests not to make a prestige issue out of it, not so early on in its tenure in the treasury benches.

The BJP, obviously, realises the magnitude of the task before it, which is why it has started peddling the line of consensus and has shifted home-spun issues on to the backburner. The party is aware that in its pursuit of peaceful governance, these are minor compromises. Obviously, the finals matter more than the rest of us seem to believe.

Although the Congress may be on a better wicket than the BJP, Sonia would be wrong in not beefing up the party before getting into battle. There is a groundswell in her favour, but it is obvious even to the visually disabled that all is not well in the party she heads. The recent election showed that a united party, that is not driven by personality clashes and ego problems, can withstand the opposition's onslaught, but what the voters would want to know is whether this rare show of unity was merely an election stunt, or if there is anything more to it.

The line-up for the next clash is more or less laid out, and it will be the United Front that will have to make up its mind as to which side to back. There is not much chance of the regional parties repeating their 1996 performance in the next election. It is even possible that by the time the finals come about, this grouping, barring the regional entities allied with the BJP, will be reduced to carrying drinks on to the field.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy