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Saffron spreads South

South Indians consider Vijayadashmi the most auspicious day to start children on the road to education. But the custom of vidyarambham isn't confined to the young. Adults too rededicate themselves to their work on Vijayadashami after the festival gives a welcome reason to lay aside the tools of their trade. I enthusiastically recommend the ceremony to all my colleagues in the media business.

I think all of us have been obsessed with the headline news, things like juicy quotes from the likes of Jayalalitha or Laloo Prasad Yadav. But upon reflection, the single most far-reaching political development of recent times is nothing to do with Sonia Gandhi, or Jayalalitha, or the pygmies in the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha. It is the gradual way in which the political map of South India is being redrawn.

India south of the Vindhyas was once considered an impregnable Congress fortress. Even the rise of regional parties didn't dent this fiction; it was felt the Congress was the only national party that could sway voters in South India. And it was agreed that if any national party could challenge the Congress it would not be the BJP, that "Hindi" party. But times have changed.

The BJP-Lok Shakti alliance won 16 of Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha seats earlier this year. This was no aberration judging by two rallies, in Madras and in Hyderabad.

Tamil Nadu witnessed three major functions in honour of Annadurai this year. Jayalalitha's AIADMK chose Tiruchirappalli, Karunanidhi's DMK held sway in Tirunelveli, and the MDMK hosted a joint celebration in Madras. The BJP, represented by no less than the prime minister himself, was present at the Madras convention. It turned out to be the best attended of the three.

Two days later, on September 17, Hyderabad celebrated its liberation from the Nizam's misrule. The chief guest at one function was L K Advani. A rival gathering boasted the presence of two former prime ministers -- "Telugu bidda" Narasimha Rao and Inder Kumar Gujral. But their joint attraction could scarcely fill a single hall, while the Union home minister drew a giant audience.

Up to a few months ago, it would have been unthinkable to bill Atal Bihari Vajpayee, an acknowledged Hindi poet, as the star speaker at a function commemorating Annadurai, that champion of Dravidian consciousness! So what has changed?

For one thing, the Congress has lost its primacy. There isn't a single South Indian state ruled by the Congress. The Left Front governs Kerala, the DMK is in possession of Tamil Nadu, the Telugu Desam has an unshakeable majority in the Andhra Pradesh legislature, and the Janata Dal still clings on to Karnataka.

True, the BJP also doesn't have ministers in Madras, Thiruvananthapuram, Hyderabad, and Bangalore. But three of the four chief ministers have repeatedly praised the Vajpayee government. (Kerala's E K Nayanar is the exception.) They have expressed the hope that the ministry in Delhi serves a full five-year term. But they have no kind words for the Congress.

Even Jayalaltiha is trying to mend bridges with the BJP. At one public meeting she accused the home minister of eating his words on dismissing the Karunanidhi ministry. That was widely reported. What was not reported was that an AIADMK emissary met L K Advani the very next day to deny that she had said anything of the sort.

If the BJP doesn't lack allies, what of the Congress? Its only potential partner is Kerala's Left Front. But what good does that do? Joining hands ultimately means vacating the Opposition space to the BJP. One Congress leader told me in confidence, "The CPI-M tasted power when the United Front ruled Delhi and liked the experience. Now it wants to repeat the experience with our help. But I have no plans to commit suicide."

As the Congress wrestles with that dilemma, the BJP is gathering strength all over South India. For the first time in the political history of this country, there are two national parties vying for the allegiance of voters in the South, not just the Congress battling several small regional forces.

Patna may have the headlines today. Jayalalitha's tantrums might send reporters scurrying down to Madras again tomorrow. But the real story is the grassroots revolution being wrought by the BJP in South India, something that could change the very face of politics decisively in the years to come.

T V R Shenoy