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What's keeping the Election Commission this time?

A few hours after the Union home ministry sent in its recommendations for poll dates and guaranteed the necessary administrative services, Chief Election Commissioner Gill said early elections were all but out of question. And with that the battle of the poll dates began in earnest.

On one side, the BJP and its allies want the general election to be held as early as possible, in eight weeks or so. The Congress and the others want the dates pushed back as far as possible, meaning September. (Under the Constitution, a Lok Sabha session cannot be delayed by more than six months. Since the house last met on April 22, this gives a cut-off date of October). Caught between the two camps are the President and the Election Commission.

By publicly proclaiming its desire for early polls, the BJP leadership is trying to underline the fact that the opposition is running away from facing the people. For separate reasons, it also wants to put the President and the Election Commission in a corner. Finally, if the BJP loses the battle for early elections, it isn't exactly going to be punished -- since it shall remain in office for several months more.

But how has Rashtrapati Bhavan found itself in this cross-fire? Because the President, perhaps with the best of intentions, has laid himself open to pursuing different policies at different times. The official communique announcing the dissolution of the 12th Lok Sabha failed to mention the poll dates. This is in signal contrast to the time when the 11th Lok Sabha was dissolved. In December 1997, the same President issued a communique ordering the constitution of the next house no later than March 15, 1998 on the same day that he dissolved the 11th Lok Sabha.

By doing so, the President had removed all uncertainty. Today, however, in spite of the prevailing economic uncertainty and the unresolved foreign policy and defence issues, no date has been fixed. This is very strange given that a previous Rashtrapati Bhawan communique had spoken of the need for a quick poll to meet 'the urgent needs of the nation'. Suddenly, it seems those same 'urgent needs' can be put into cold storage for up to six months.

This is in stark contrast to the amazing speed with which Rashtrapati Bhavan reacted to other political developments. When Jayalalitha formally withdrew her support from the Vajpayee ministry, the President summoned the BJP prime minister in a couple of hours. After the Vajpayee ministry lost the vote of confidence, Congress leaders were invited to Rashtrapati Bhavan the next day to discuss the fate of the Budget. Questions are now being asked why time doesn't seem to be a factor only when it is an issue of Sonia Gandhi mustering support or a general election being held.

How about the Election Commission? The commission has always taken the position that polls can be held on eight weeks' notice. It is being informally stated that the Election Commission requires time to revise the electoral rolls, and also to avoid the climatic excesses of summer and the monsoon. These reasons are being met with some scepticism.

Statistically, September is actually a horrible time for polls; there have been more floods in that month than in any other. And floods are a far greater impediment than monsoon showers or a heat wave.

As to the revision of electoral rolls, this is a never-ending process. Some people want to correct errors in detail. Several people change their place of residence. Others suddenly discover they have never voted despite being eligible. But these millions are a drop in the ocean compared to the hundreds of millions of correctly registered voters. Can you justify six months of uncertainty for the sake of extending the electoral rolls by a few percentage points?

The Election Commission's stand has already evoked outrage from the financial and industrial sectors. Over Rs 40,000 crore was wiped out from the Bombay Stock Exchange in a single day thanks to the opposition's opportunistic irresponsibility. And everyone agrees that the economy simply cannot be revived unless there is a stable government in Delhi.

The BJP could have continued in office by manoeuvring a majority in Parliament even after losing the vote of confidence. Three members of Parliament were supposedly willing to cross the floor once it became obvious that the Congress had failed. But the BJP deliberately chose to win a fresh mandate from the voters. Shouldn't we -- the voters -- be given the option of affirming or denying the BJP immediately rather than wait for Sonia Gandhi's convenience?

T V R Shenoy