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Rebel with no cause?

Kalyan Singh is not a man given to empty posturing. Nor is he going to find the going easy if he were to throw in his lot with Mulayam Singh, Mayawati et al, if he were to go along with them in the, to use a cliché, politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.

For him to go back on his rebellion, against no less than the prime minister, who the party considers its sole vote-catcher, is out of the question, not after his diatribe against Vajpayee. The question, now, is not whether Kalyan Singh will walk down the path of pugnacity he has charted out for himself, but where the path will lead him.

Rebellions are a strange thing -- in fact, barring Vishwanath Pratap Singh in recent history, one cannot off-hand think of a successful rebel leader who succeeded in his ambition of overthrowing/replacing the parent organisation. And Singh was able to achieve his end, thanks to the fact that Rajiv Gandhi was wet behind the ears in matters political, and he had the organisational backing of both the left and the right in 1989 who accepted his supremacy unquestioningly.

Such external aid, or acceptance of his leadership, is not going to come by Kalyan Singh's way. Nor is the Bharatiya Janata Party politically immature, or inexperienced, to let Kalyan Singh seize the political initiative in the manner Rajiv Gandhi did with the other Singh 10 years ago. UP is, again to use that cliché, too politically crucial for the BJP to squander away in petty squabbles.

All rebellion, whatever be the moral husk that covers them, is about political power, and is mostly sparked off by a clash of personalities than principles, just as all political quest is about the same end. There is no higher calling that is motivating either the BJP or Kalyan Singh: the two are fighting for political space.

As of now, it is a stalemate in Lucknow. Kalyan Singh will not move towards bringing down the BJP government unless he is sure of his support within the BJP legislature party. Even if he were sure of pulling down the Gupta government, he can't be oblivious of what will have to follow. The numbers required on his part to form a government of his own are just not there, with the result that fresh elections are the sole available option. Even there, he will be taking on the well-entrenched BJP, Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party -- which, as of now, seems like taking on the Bofors howitzer with a pea-shooter.

Rebellions have a habit of petering out when especially precipitate action is unleashed, often in the heat of the moment, without proper planning and execution. Rebellions also often take time to fructify, even though it would seem in the first flush of raising the banner of revolt that the earth is waiting to be conquered. Many are the men who have fallen prey to their own bloated perceptions of their importance, popularity, and have had to don sackcloth and ashes, so the danger for Kalyan Singh is very real.

On the flip side, rebellions often centre around an individual, who starts off with mouthing principles and soon, realising that he is at the centre of it all, allows for his deification. Kalyan Singh could well end up as a footnote in Uttar Pradesh's history, and it is very likely that he is destined for just such an end.

Revile V P Singh for what you will, but at least credit him for the shrewd manner in which he orchestrated the revolt against his former friend who, only a couple of years ago, was voted in with the biggest electoral mandate in Indian history. But even his rebellion was successful in the limited sense: he replaced the Rajiv Gandhi government, no doubt, but what after that?

It seems that the best possible scenario for Kalyan Singh is inflicting damage on the BJP's chances, whenever elections are held. And, before he gets around to doing that, he will find that the rebellion will have cost himself as heavily as it will the BJP.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy