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V for Vajpayee

The longest general election has finally ended much to the relief of all concerned. But a weary nation is still far from bidding farewell to political shenanigans because all signs point to yet another Lok Sabha where no single political party shall win an absolute majority. Meaning: expect more of those famous interviews in the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhavan. (That place from where Sonia Gandhi vowed that she had the support of 272 members of Parliament this past April, remember?)

With the ball in the President's court, it is -- or will be once the votes are counted -- K R Narayanan's responsibility to give the oath of office to one of the contenders for the prime ministership. His task won't become any easier since some parties are bent on muddying the waters. It all boils down to one question: in the event that no single party reaches the halfway-mark of 272, how do you define victory and defeat?

Every party seems bent upon plunging into a quicksand of legalese when queried on that subject. Not being a lawyer myself, I shall suggest a simpler solution: see how many members of Parliament were on one side or the other when the 12th Lok Sabha was dissolved, see how many have returned to each side in the 13th House, and then decide.

The President's task is made simpler by the fact that there are only two real contenders for the prime minister's post in the context of the 13th Lok Sabha. And they are the same duo whose names appeared in that context in the last House ญญ Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi. So what are the benchmarks we should use for the two frontrunners?

When the Lok Sabha was dissolved, there were 268 MPs backing the BJP veteran. He could also have availed of the Speaker's vote if need be -- making 269 in all. (He actually had one more in that last crucial vote of confidence, but one Telugu Desam member defected to the Congress afterwards.) So the question, as far as Vajpayee is concerned, is: will he have more than 269 votes?

How about Sonia Gandhi? When the last House was dissolved, the Congress president, by her own admission, could muster no more than 239 votes. (Yes, there were far more who voted against the Vajpayee ministry, but many of them also firmly refused to back any government led by Sonia Gandhi -- notoriously Mulayam Singh Yadav.)

I admit that it is a little unfair to Vajpayee to be asked to meet a higher standard than Sonia Gandhi. But when his government fell, the common refrain was that the BJP-led alliance would take the issue to the court of the people. Given that this grouping had 268 or 269 votes (depending on whether or not the speaker is taken into account), that is the figure by which the pro-Vajpayee forces must stand or fall.

Frankly, this doesn't seem to be much of a problem -- both the pre-poll and the exit-poll surveys show the BJP-led forces heading for a clear majority in the 13th Lok Sabha. Some polls speak of their crossing 300, which seems a little on the optimistic side to me, but who knows? (Please note that I am speaking of the whole alliance, not just the BJP; 200 or thereabouts seems a realistic ceiling to the expectations of the party on its own.)

How about the Congress? Well, technically, it is perfectly possible both that the BJP-led alliance wins an absolute majority while, simultaneously, the Congress and its electoral allies get 239. (This scenario assumes, of course, that all the bits and pieces of the Third Front are almost totally rejected by the voters.) But even if it is possible, is it probable?

I have been consistently stating in this column that the Congress will find it difficult to get substantially more than 150 (which is still more than what it could get in either 1996 or 1998). Assume if you want that the Congress somehow manages to get 170 or 180 (which is more than even Congressmen are saying in private!) -- that still leaves Sonia Gandhi substantially short of a majority.

It seems safe to say Vajpayee is well poised to cross 272, forget the 268+1 he had six months ago. As for Sonia Gandhi, well, even 239 -- with all her allies -- seems rather far-fetched.

T V R Shenoy