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A new high in Indo-Nepal relations

That's how it looked during Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh's four-day recent visit to Kathmandu, when it coincided with the completion of 100 days of a single party, Nepali Congress majority government which was back in power after a series of adulterous coalitions from a five-year long hung Parliament. Through Singh, India, at the request of Nepal, was both acknowledging the debut of the new government and blessing it too. On its part, Nepal was signalling its trust, confidence and hope in the BJP-led alliance returning to power with a stable majority, ending the difficult period of political uncertainty.

Political pundits had forecast the revival of a hung Parliament after the May elections in which India was not an issue. Surprisingly, the extreme right and left forces headed by one-time prime minister L B Chand and deputy prime minister Bamdev Gautam, both representing anti-India power centres, were completely wiped out. Many Nepalese admitted there were now no bones, real or imagined, to pick with India.

But this is only partly true as Singh discovered that some nit-picking by the Nepalese was inevitable and part of the special relationship which he was going to carry forward in a spirit of partnership. At the heart of this spirit of amity is the India-aided BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences at Dharan in east Nepal, the touchstone of integrated border development with spin-offs for Indian states bordering Nepal, which Singh had come to formally hand over to Nepal.

Singh emphasised the Indian goal of helping in 'building Nepal' according to its preferences and priorities. He said it was time for implementation of projects languishing on the drawing board. Making Nepal an energy exporting country was integral to Indo-Nepal economic cooperation and the central theme of his visit.

Nepal's industry and trade regime are still smarting from the aftershock of the decade-old economic blockade. The re-bifurcation of the composite treaty of trade and transit into two separate trade and transit treaties, but renewable after five and seven years, is the most coveted pair of treaties for Nepal.

Spurred by a cluster of other recent agreements with India on power, water resources, tourism, civil aviation, trade, transit facility, investment and a liberal export regime, Nepalese exports have shot up 400 per cent despite the decade-long political instability.

Singh's vision of a prosperous Nepal in partnership with India is however contingent on the longevity and stability of the two governments. The uncharitable view from Nepal is that the caretaker election government of NC and United Marxist Leninist combine (a replica of the interim government of 1990) have between them indulged in massive rigging to emerge the largest and second largest parties in Parliament.

The UML, under Madhav Nepal, now leader of the opposition, was instrumental in decimating the extreme left, Bamdev Gautam faction of the once united UML. K P Oili, Madhav's deputy, is both a rival and party ideologue. Some Nepalese say that Indian money was involved in the elimination operation.

Prime Minister K P Bhattarai has achieved his life's ambition: being elected to Parliament. But he is frail in health and because people do not take him seriously, he is unlikely to deliver. In the interests of party unity, former prime minister and NC president, G P Koirala, has buried the hatchet, formally ending the age-old feud with Bhattarai. It is Koirala who has paid the price for political stability.

However, there are well-founded fears that UML will try to destabilise the NC government by engineering a split some time in the second half of next year, after the NC party convention and the constitution of the new working committee. That is the time UML expects the cracks in NC to show up.

For NC, there is another adverse contingency: non-performance, corruption, and Bhattarai's failing health. Bhattarai has been promising results in three years. One can speculate on a possible deal for another change-around between Koirala and Bhattarai, provided the latter's health holds. Otherwise the decks would be clear for Bhattarai's confidant and second generation leader, former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, to take over. But the hitch about a third term for Koirala will remain.

Interestingly, Deuba was in China at the time of Singh's visit. The English newspapers in Kathmandu reported Chinese senior leader Li Peng telling Deuba: "China values its friendship with Nepal not only as a neighbour but also from the security point of view." There was reference to the Himalayas as never being a barrier in promoting friendship and cooperation. It is along the crest of the Himalayas where Indian security concerns start.

At the end of his visit, among other questions, the Nepalese media baited Singh with the Li Peng comment on security perception. Having only recently untied the knot with Beijing caused by India naming China as the reason for its nuclear tests, he was unwilling to react to a mere press report. Inevitably, prickly questions were asked on nuclear doctrine, Kala Pani, the 1950 treaty of peace and friendship, Bhutanese refugees and Mahakali. The last four issues are becoming perennial.

The two sides also raised mutual security concerns: Nepal seeking guarantees that no help would be given to the Maoist guerillas waging a people's war in the far west of the country; and India on ISI-related activities. Of late Nepal has become a conduit for terrorism, safe haven for Kashmiri terrorists and the ISI, and the Terai, the hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism. For political and financial considerations, Nepal, the world's only Hindu kingdom, is turning a blind eye to the last development.

In the days of the Ranas, Kathmandu was regarded as one of the intrigue capitals of the world. That reputation has stuck. Narcotics, gold, RDX and weapons are being siphoned freely through Nepal. A mysterious convoy of 18 trucks originating from China and ostensibly carrying goods for the South Asian games at Kathmandu was found abandoned on the Kodari highway days before the Singh visit. The details of the cargo or its destination are being investigated.

The other hot topic in Kathmandu these days is Kargil. The left-leaning sections of the press have accused India of using the Gurkhas as sacrificial goats in the war -- which everyone knows is not true. Of the nearly 500 soldiers killed, only 20 were Gurkhas.

Wearing his maroon cavalry regiment sidecap and miniature medals, Singh addressed Gurkha ex-servicemen in Dharan. He assured them that no distinction would be made between Indian and Nepalese soldiers killed or wounded in action. The British Gurkhas are up in arms against the discrimination against them in the British Army on this account. An international conference highlighting the plight of British Gurkhas is being organised at Kathmandu. That Nepalese Gurkhas are fighting to defend the integrity of India is the best proof of Indo-Nepalese special relationship.

Bhattarai will visit India on his first visit abroad after becoming prime minister and before that he receives the new Indian prime minister at the Kathmandu SAARC summit in November. The political transition in both countries augurs well for political stability and resolution of outstanding issues. But each side has its famous grouse: India of Nepalese anti-Indianism which is synonymous with nationalism, and Nepal of Indian interference in its domestic affairs.

General Ashok K Mehta