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NDA may not cross the 300 mark

Sometimes the questions thrown up by a general election can be as enlightening as the answers -- especially if the queries come from politically sensitive Lucknow. In 1996, I found most content to ask if the Congress would return. In 1998, Lucknow wondered if the next prime minister would be Atal Bihari Vajpayee. And today?

Now, I find there are four questions. First, will the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance succeed in winning 300 seats? Second, shall the BJP win 200 on its own? Third, can the Congress cross 150? Fourth, what will be Sonia Gandhi's fate in Bellary?

Note there is no question of Sonia Gandhi forming a ministry. Of course, Lucknow, whose sitting member of Parliament is none other than Prime Minister Vajpayee, has a slight bias! But this year those questions seem to reflect the mood of India as a whole, not just Lucknow.

The first question mirrors the Indian electorate's worries about stability. In 1998, the BJP and its pre-poll allies came achingly close to the magic figure of 272 (the half-way mark in the 543-strong Lok Sabha).

The help of the Telugu Desam Party and Om Parkash Chautala's Haryana Lok Dal gave the alliance a slim majority. But it was never enough to provide even the illusion of security thanks to Jayalalithašs constant tantrums.

So now the voters want to know if the alliance will have at least 300 members of Parliament. I am not saying such a figure guarantees stability. (After all, both the Deve Gowda and Gujral ministries won votes of confidence with wide margins, yet neither lasted even a year.) Nevertheless, the figure of three hundred seems to have caught the public imagination.

This leads into the second question -- about the BJP itself having 200 members of Parliament. This, again, is a reflection of the fear of instability caused by events in the last Lok Sabha. The larger the leading party in a coalition, the more stable that alliance -- think about the difference in the CPI-M-led fronts in Kerala and in West Bengal; when the Marxists have an absolute majority in the assembly, as in Calcutta, the smaller groups are more amenable to orders.

Of course, a credible Opposition opens up windows of opportunity to small parties. In West Bengal, the RSP and Forward Bloc became vocal about the CPI-M's bullying once the Trinamul Congress-BJP alliance appeared. And that takes us to the third question.

At the national level, the only credible opposition to the BJP is the Congress. The CPI-M, which will probably be the third largest party, will be lucky to win anywhere near 40 seats. Only the Congress has the potential to cross the three-figure mark. But that isn't enough; can Sonia Gandhi's party reach 150?

I use the words 'Sonia Gandhi's party' advisedly. In 1996, the party was led by P V Narasimha Rao when it got just 141 seats. In 1998, the president of the Congress was Sitaram Kesri when the party ended up with precisely the same number. If the Congress's performance is much the same in 1999, it will prove that the so-called charisma of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is so much bunk.

If Sonia Gandhi cannot lead her party to power, what use is she? In a way, it might be good for the party if it does badly in 1999. The Congress was looking for an easy solution in Sonia Gandhi; today's Congressmen simply cannot be bothered to do grassroots-level organisational work.

Deprived of illusions about the Nehru-Gandhi influence, the party will be forced to reinvent itself. And that, in the long run, is a good thing for India. (I firmly believe that one-party dominance inevitably leads to various evils, irrespective of whether that party is the BJP or the Congress.)

This is why Bellary is crucial. The organisational weakness of the Congress referred to above is best demonstrated in this constituency. Here is a seat that consistently returned Congress nominees in 12 Lok Sabha elections; yet Sonia Gandhi herself could not be absolutely certain of victory!

So much for questions, what are the answers? Well, the National Democratic Alliance might reach the 300-mark in the next Lok Sabha but it needs more than a smidgen of luck. The BJP has only a slightly better chance of crossing 200. The Congress will be fortunate indeed to get substantially more than 150 seats. Basically, I think Vajpayee shall still be prime minister, with an enhanced mandate to boot -- but hopes of 300+ seats for the National Democratic Alliance are fading.

T V R Shenoy