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T V R Shenoy

Will Congress MLAs in Gandhinagar follow their fellows in Lucknow, and show the way for MPs in Delhi?

It was bad enough having an Inder as the chief executive in Indraprastha. Must we also endure the sight of a Gujral in Gujarat? Well, if Chacha Kesri has his way, Indian democracy is due for another battering, come November 13.

Having got rid of Narasimha Rao, Sitaram Kesri decided he could always have his own way. That overconfidence led him to stage an assault on the central secretariat back in March.

I hope everyone recalls what the Congress president said in his infamous letter withdrawing support to the United Front. He levelled serious charges, accusing the ministers of harming the economy and jeopardising national security.

Three weeks later Kesri sang a different tune. He backed the same set of ministers, all holding the same departments. The sole difference was I K Gujral replacing H D Deve Gowda.

Change a few names and places, and the Delhi of March-April could be the Gandhinagar of October-November! Seven months ago Kesri spoke of defence and economic policy, and today he speaks of corruption -- but these are matters of detail.

The bottom line is that in both cases Sitaram Kesri failed to bring his party to power. But failure in Gandhinagar, oddly enough, could be far more serious than the setback in Delhi.

The difference is Kalyan Singh's work. Earlier this year the BJP openly announced it would make no effort to put up an alternative government if the Deve Gowda ministry fell. At which the anti-BJP forces laughed, saying it was because nobody was willing to join the 'communal forces'.

This was always untrue. I can state with absolute confidence that there were plenty of 'secularists' willing to join hands with the BJP -- not just in April 1997, but even in May 1996. But it fell to Kalyan Singh to prove just how easily the BJP can drive through its foes when it so desires.

The biggest loser by far in Lucknow was Kesri. He wanted to put N D Tiwari in the chief minister's chair (abetted by Uttar Pradesh's unworthy governor). He wanted to clip Jitendra Prasada's wings. He wanted to show the UF who the boss is.

Kesri has lost on every count. The BJP is still in the driver's seat, and it is the Congress that is in disarray. With the wounds of Lucknow still raw, Chacha simply can't afford another loss of face just now.

It is bad enough the Congress has been forced to settle for the absolute minimum -- getting a Dilip Parikh in place of Shankersinh Vaghela. But after putting the best face on it, Kesri can't even be sure that his partymen will back him up.

Please note the differences in the way similar situations were handled in Uttar Pradesh and in Gujarat. Romesh Bhandari was reluctant to give Kalyan Singh 36 hours to prove his majority in the assembly. Krishna Pal Singh has already given the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Party 25 days to get their act together.

To give the devil his due, nobody doubted Vaghela's ability to call his troops to order. The question was whether Congress MLAs would follow Kesri as he went back and forth. And those queries will continue up to the point that those MLAs back Parikh's proposed vote of confidence.

What happens if the Gujrat unit of the Congress follows the example of their fellow MLAs in UP? In that case, will there be anything to stop an exodus of Congress MPs in Delhi?

Congress leaders -- very senior leaders! -- admit the policy of support from outside has paid no dividends whatsoever. In the last 18 months the Congress has steadily lost support at the grassroot level. Nobody knows that better than the 140-odd Congress MPs in the Lok Sabha.

They also know that the ever-squabbling UF can't continue much longer. If there is no alternative ministry, this will result in a general election. Suddenly, the disciplined ranks of the BJP begin to look very attractive indeed!

And the icing on the cake is that the UP drama demonstrated there are tangible benefits in joining hands with the BJP. Will Congress MLAs in Gandhinagar follow their fellows in Lucknow, and show the way for MPs in Delhi?

For a fighting-fit BJP, it makes very little difference. Either it upsets Kesri in Gandhinagar. Or it sits back and watches the Congress president make an even greater mess in the coming months!

T V R Shenoy