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Rediff.com  » Sports » What Bangalore needs to make the semis

What Bangalore needs to make the semis

By Karthik Ramamurthy, KeyResultz Ventures
Last updated on: May 21, 2009 17:19 IST
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With the last two matches of IPL 2009's first phase drawing to a close on Thursday, Yuvraj Singh's Kings XI Punjab will be hoping Bangalore Royal Challengers (BRC) lose big to the Deccan Chargers in the second match at SuperSport Park, Centurion.

What are the various possibilities?

An abandoned match:

In the unlikely case the match is called off without a ball being bowled, both teams will finish in the top four with 15 points. The Chargers will be at third place because of their better Nett Run Rate going into the match.

The Royal Challengers win:

Bangalore will straightaway finish at third place on 16 points and will meet the Chennai SuperKings in the second semi-final at the Wanderer's stadium at Johannesburg on May 23. A BRC victory will avoid the need for any Nett Run Rate calculations, since the Deccan Chargers' NRR is far superior to that of the Kings XI.

Bangalore loses:

If Bangalore were to lose, they will be tied with the Kings XI on 14 points. They will then need to ensure that their defeat is not so large that their Nett Run Rate (currently -0.2526) does not fall below Kings XI's -0.4835.

What are the exact numbers Bangalore needs to keep in mind? And is their task tough? Not at all, as the tables below indicate.

If the Deccan Chargers bat first, Anil Kumble's men need to ensure they do not lose by a margin of more than 75 to 85 runs, depending on what Deccan scores in 20 overs.

If Bangalore bat first, they need to make sure Deccan do not get to the winning target with more than 9 to 10 overs remaining. Here, then, are the details:

Scenario 1: The Deccan Chargers bat first

Assuming the Deccan Chargers Score (in 20 overs) is in the range Bangalore's margin of defeat should not exceed
76 to 91 75
92 to 107 76
108 to 123 77
124 to 138 78
139 to 154 79
155 to 170 80
171 to 186 81
187 to 201 82
202 to 217 83
218 to 233 84
234 to 248 85

Scenario 2: The Royal Challengers bat first

Assuming Bangalore's Score (in 20 overs) is in the range Bangalore needs to bowl at least these many overs before the Deccan Chargers reach the winning target
20 to 53 10.4 overs
54 to 81 10.5
82 to 110 11
111 to 140 11.1
141 to 171 11.2
172 to 203 11.3
204 to 236 11.4
237 to 250 11.5

It's clear that Bangalore's task is not very tough. But then, stranger things have happened in cricket, and the Challengers better not uncork their sponsors' champagne too soon!

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Karthik Ramamurthy, KeyResultz Ventures

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