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The Election Day Results Chat

Unlike Chief Ministers of states where their parties had fared badly in the Lok Sabha polls and yet saw no reason to resign, Maharashtra Chief Minister Manohar Joshi, whose Shiv Sena-BJP alliance was routed, had handed over his resignation to his party chief, Balasaheb Thackeray. But the resignation is not likely to be accepted. Thackeray blamed the media for ignoring his government's achievments. The Congress-RPI-Samajwadi party alliance also played a role in his party's defeat, said Thackeray.

Mr Gangadhar>> Actually, it is rather funny, when Joshi was asked -- on television, mind you -- why he hadn't submitted his resignation to the governor, he said, "Because he would accept it".

Prem, Joshi may have lost an election but seems to have developed a sense of humour!

That, or a penchant for locomoting with foot firmly in mouth.

Mr Gangadhar: Yes, Joshi certainly has a sense of humour, somehow I don't know why I find the Sena guys very endearingly simple. It is the Maratha on the other side who raises my hackles, almost instinctively

Everyone: Hello, how are you? Have a nice day or evening wherever you are?

Well, the latest is that we are discussing with UF constituents and all the secular parties of probabilities of forming the government together.

Good evening, and welcome to the Rediff Chat, Mrs Heptulla. Can you tell us how many women MPs have been elected on your party ticket this time?

Mrs Heptulla: What are the chances of the Congress-UF pact succeeding this time?

Sai: I was giving importance to it last time. But just now we do not have the tally. But definitely, the number is not satisfactory. Because where we have made the victory there are not many women. IN WB and UP where we had given tickets to women, we did not do very well. But in Maharashtra both the women have won.

Sai: Very good chance. This time it won't fail because we will make a solid understanding. And last time we were not part of the government. |We were sitting out.

Good evening, Ms Heptulla. One of the major campaign planks of all the leading parties was the stability factor. With almost all the results out, how do you think the electorate has responded to this issue?

nachiketa: We never backstabbed anybody. We continued to support them for two years. The DMK should have realised that we are sentiment ahout Rajivji's assassination. And now that the full report has come of the Jain Commission We will see the report and study it. Everybody: Goodbye and prepare good questions for tomorrow. I will see you.

As far as forming the government is concerned, it is not that the President can do exactly as he wishes. The last time too, S D Sharmaji knew that the BJP government would not last. Still he invited them to form the government. Is this a joke or what? The President should call only those who can form a stable government. At the appropriate time, we will send a letter to the President, describing the support we have and staking our claim to form power.

By all accounts it seems that the TDP and Chandrababu Naidu holds the key to that little push which would take the BJP across the line. But will he take that crucial step?

The Congress seems divided into two camps -- one that wants to form a government with UF support. Mr Pawar is understandably the leader opf this camp. There is another camp, which has people like Madhavrao Scindia, who believe the Congress should sit it out in the Opposition and wait till the tide turns against the BJP government. Which incidentally is what Mr Advani said last December. he beleieved the Congress would have been in a much stronger position had it let the BJP form the govt and stay on in May 1996. Mr Advani believed the BJP govt would have collapsed within a few months and the Congress could have used the stability card...

I believe the BJP will find it difficult to handle the demands from its allies. J Jayalalitha is not going to meekly retire to Poes Gardens; the lady is bound to demand her pound of flesh, and that may include the dismissal of the DMK ministry. George Fernandes is also a loose cannon. CMP or not, George is a mercurial customer whose behavourial patterns cannot be predicted from one day to another. I say this with great affection, having enomrous respect for the man's political skills. And then, of course, there is my old friend Subramanian Swamy (alas, we are estranged now!).

Anyone who has dealt with Dr Swamy will know that the man is capable of Cain. How he will cohabit in an arrangement with Messrs Vajpayee and Advani against whom he ran a campaign in the late seventies and early eighties is a mystery to me.

And, then, there is Om Parkash Chautala. His offer of "unconditional" support is to be taken with a couple of bags of sodium chloride.

My colleague Saisuresh Sivaswamy had advised the BJP in a recent column to sit in the Opposition. What do you guys think? After all, this is the semifinal...

ABV was in Lucknow on Tuesday, ostensibly for a thanksgiving mission. Somehow, I don't buy that one. There seems to be much more to that than meets the eye.

Meanwhile, a key question would be, where will the UF go? We will update the figures in just a while, but off the top, the two big chunks are with the Left, and with Samajwadi Party. The Left has already indicated it will back, or join, the Cong if only to keep the BJP out. Mulayam Singh Yadav, ditto. So on the surface, it appears that the UF, in large part or in whole, will indeed back the Congress if it makes a real pitch for power.

Interestingly, in and around the Cong office, posters have spouted hailing Pawar as the leader! Just who is responsible for the posters is not known, it could be part of a pressure tactic by the Pawar faithful.

One thing is clear -- the Congress has indicated that if it makes a bid to form a government, there is no question of outside support, the UF will be part of the government.

The Confederation of Indian Industry, meanwhile, has reacted with caution to the political development, and the CII has called for stability as the biggest need.

Meanwhile, for armchair analysts, two promising avenues to explore: one is the anti-incumbency factor -- which has worked in every single state, except Delhi where the government in power, the BJP, has swept six of seven. Everywhere else, the state government has been given stick by the electorate.

The other one is that while there is no clear overall verdict, the verdict when looked at statewise is very clear, in favour of one or the other party or group -- whether it is the Congress sweep in Maharashtra and Rajasthan and such, or the BJP sweep in TN and Karnataka and so on. Decisive in the states, indecisive at the Centre, what does that tell you?

Pramod Mahajan, in Bombay, meanwhile announces on television that the BJP is sure of its numbers, that it is ready to form the government, and that for his own part, there is no question of getting into Parliament through the Rajya Sabha backdoor.

A B Bardhan, meanwhile, categorically denies any move by the TDP to support the BJP.

R K Dhawan tells the telly that the CWC will decide whether to make a bid for power. He says however that the Congress will make a strong bid to try and keep "communal forces" out of power. Asked about the numbers, he says that is not a problem, and talks about people who have left the party before the election, who could come back into the fold. He doesn't name names, neither does he rule out Mamta Bannerjee.

Good morning, folks, how goes it?

Prem: Interesting point,that about the anti-incumbency factory having spared Delhi. There are a couple of other states too: Punjab, AP..., Bengal maybe where the LDF has not done all that badly, Kerala?

Good morning. It is raining in Delhi now. But the power game has begun in the Congress camp. The party leadership is pulling out all stops early in the morning to form a coalition government at the Centre. Congress president Sitaram Kesri has already completed an informal round of breakfast meeting with top party leaders.

To the Cong team: I believe there is an informal CWC meeting this morning. Is it possible for you to tell us what will happen there?

Yeah, right, Sai, Punjab has gone with the ruling coalition. But even in Kerala and Bengal, the anti-incumbent feeling is pretty evident, only perhaps not to the same scale as in our own Tiger-land. :-)

The Congress's frontrunning prime ministerial candidate is undoubtedly Sharad Pawar. He is expected to be back in Delhi today noon.

There is talk that Sonia Gandhi has already been isolated, and Mr Kesri has taken charge. How correct is this perception?

Good morning Sai. The BJP would not wait till Saturday to begin talks. It seems that the talks have already begun and the scene of action has shifted from the BJP office to the residences of various leaders. Right now it seems that a meeting is going on at Vajpayee's residence...

Nikhil: I propose our Delhi crowd for Rediff's version of the Bharat Ratna

Good morning Nikhil. An informal CWC meeting is scheduled today before noon either at the AICC office or Mr Kesri's residence. It will depute top leaders to rope in the soft BJP allies -- the Trinamul Congress, Samata Party and the AIADMK -- to join a Congress-led coalition.