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The Election Day Results Chat

The BJP appears pretty confident that the President will summon it to form a government. Is this correct?

Rediff@BJPhq: Good morning friends. Tell me, when does the BJP plan to approach the President with its claim? Do its leaders realise the cost of waiting too long, considering the contortions the Congress is going into trying to keep it out of power. The scenario I painted earlier to Prem, could then well become a reality?

More than the rains, the lack of action here has dampened the spirits of the television crews. Now the only thing the party workers can advice the television guys is to go to the various leaders's homes and catch them there. A clear indication that the BJP leaders are huddled in meetings elsewhere. It not uncommon in New Delhi to have the meetings in various farm houses away from the respective party offices. But in the BJP's case it has always been either Vajpayee's or Advani's residence...

Nikhil: It is absolutely wrong that Sonia has been isolated. In fact, throughout yesterday all top Congress leaders including Kesri met Sonia. Our reliable Congress sources say that the party's prime ministerial candidate will be Sonia's choice.

I say this because Mr Vajpayee is as peripatetic as ever. He was in Lucknow yesterday, he will be in Gandhinagar this evening. Has he left the hassles of talking to possible partners to Mr Advani and people like Mr Mahajan?

Cong: So who will that be? Sharad Pawar, who has the numbers. Or Dr Singh, who has Sonia's confidence?

Sai>> interestingly, Advani in Jammu announced that the BJP will formally pick Vajpayee on Saturday, and then approach the Prez. :-) Yeah, right, a case of waiting a shade too long? Or is it an attempt to be dead sure about the numbers, rather than risk the embarassment of last time?

Nikhil, yesterday Kushabhau Thakre, the senior-most general secretary of the BJP, had told us that the party is pretty confident that the President would invite the BJP to form a government. Moreover, it seems that even before approaching the President, the BJP would get the required support from somewhere, somehow. Though even in hush hush, "revelations," the leaders say that the support will come to them instead of they going for it but that need not be the case. But Naidu procclaiming Congress as the principal enemy has brought cheer to the BJP...

Nikhil>> to add to the fun, on Star TV yesterday, Madhavrao Scindia was introduced as the probable PM!

BJP/Cong: What has this experience been like? Could we have a personal assessment, fearless, free and frank please!

Nikhil Lakshman: I was in fact thinking about the BJP's extra cool attitude. Why are they not jumping the gun? Is it obvious that in the current seesaw, the advantage will rest with that bloc which is invited to form the government first, the fence-sitters will decide their course of action accordingly. And, since the President has no codified law to follow but his discretion, precedent and convention, there is nothing expressly preventing him from calling the Congress-UF if they can produce support letters from each and every non-BJP entity to show that the numbers are with them, and thwart the BJP's march to South Block. What do you think?

Nikhil: Considering the non-political background to Manmohan and his late entry into active politics, what explains his proximity to 10 Janpath? Just non-controversialness?

Sai: I am almost certain that the President will summon Mr Vajpayee. I think forming a government is going to be the easy part, sustaining it is going to be the tough part. Jayalalitha, George Fernandes, Dr Swamy...Whew!

Sai, the BJP just cannot afford a repetition of 1996 when they staked claim but could not prove it on the floor of the house. So this time they would go to the President onl;y the required numbers. Now they have 249 and are leading in one. So that means that the party has almost broken the psychological barrier of 250. The leaders here feel that they just cannot be stopped now. With just 23 seats need they have already got 4 from Om Parkash Chauthala. then the rest 19. The leaders here tell us that it is no big deal to get a few Independents. But the TDP would lend them the legitimacy they need badly...

In all likelihood, Dr Manmohan Singh will emerge as the prime ministerial candidate from the Congress. He has Sonia's confidence. And he has wide acceptability within th party. Ofcourse Pawar has emerged as the stongest Congressman after the elections. And he has the numbers too with him. But a section of Congress leaders led by none other than Kesri are against his candidature. Pawar does not have the confidence of Sonia.

As we said last night, the BJP has 250 plus four of Mr Chautala's men plus seven from Ms Banerjee plus two of Mr Apang's MPs plus Ms Maneka Gandhi. I don't know what the hullabaloo about 272 is. Mr Narasimha Rao had just 232 MPs in June 1991.

Nikhil: My personal assessment is that the party is not all that happy to have fallen short yet again. The brave front notwithstanding the party now knows that it just cannot take any state for granted. Jubilations apart here everybody is quite aware that the grand performance in Tamil Nadu is mostly due to the alliance it has struck: an alliance which BJP had to defend through out the country, an alliance which even its die-hard ally Samata wouldn't defend...

Nikhil: To be very frank, Rediff has become as famous as Star or DD in the Congress office. Most of the AICC joint secretaries keep coming to our room for the updates. When Pranab Mukherjee and Ghulam Nabi Azad came, all the TV crew were in our room to catch them after our chat.

BJP GHQ: Thanks, buddy. So how has it been, sitting in the midst of the most happening place in politics just now?

I don't think Sonia will be able to force her candidate on the CPP this time. If she had been able to get 20 or 30 seats for the party -- clearly -- then mit would have been different. I don't think the Congress can afford a vicious dispute over leadership. And when we speak of leadership and Sonia, let us not forget that the Congress needs a candidate who has the confidence of the United Front.

The experience here has been terrific. There was always a sense of urgency. something was happening all the time. the leaders though later they said, ah yes we expected something between 240 to 250," were a crest fallen lot when Pramod Mahajan and Jaswant Singh lost...

But then the intra-party relations were also out in the open for us to see. the best instance was when the news of Pramod Mahajan's defeat and the rout in Maharashtra and Rajasthan came in...

Nikhil: Whoever forms the next government, how much time will you give it before it falls under the weight of its internal contradictions, and yes, I am including that contra...blahblah for the BJP as well

"We had two great manipulators: Pramod Mahajan and Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. they feel that they can make or marr a government, even at the centre. But what they don't know is that they were big zeroes. We can handle small zeroes but not bigger ones. Now that Pramod's lost and Bhairon has nothing much to do with jmust 5 MPs from his state let these great manipulators go out and get us 20 odd MPs..."

That was the reaction. It was even said that Pramod Mahajan's defeat was in a way the workers's revenge against this fiery leader...

It is true that the Congress can not afford a vicious dispute over its prime ministerial candidate. But definitely, that is going to happen. And as far the Congress' approach towards UF is concerned, the Congress leadership will make it a condition that selecting a prime minister is the party's own business.

Prem, for a change it was great to have all the television guys queue up in the coridoor in front of our room to catch hold of those leaders who were chatting with us. In fact CNN actually dragged Arun Jaitley away from our terminal last evening. Similarly the mighty Doordarshan caught hold of Govindacharya when he was chatting with for the second time in the day last evening. So was the case with Mridula Sinha, Kanchan Gupta and others...

Rediff-BJP>> Pramod not exactly the flavour of the month in that part of the world, huh? How about Jaswant?

Rediff@BJP: How was the news of Mahajan and Jaswant greeted? Now you have made me curiou *grin* And, what is the inside story behind their defeat?

Shalini: That exactly is the reason for the BJP going to the back foot. The party is now talking about a common minimum programme and is any day ready for any kind of compromise with the excuse they don't have a mandate to implement their controversial agenda. This, in fact, is the victory for the "practical ones," in the party over the hardliners. The political battles would be won politically and not on ideologies is the refrain nowadays here. And that is obviously a euphemism for opportunism et al...

EVERYONE: Hello, everyone. I am ready for your questions on Indian elections.

India's new Parliament is well and truly hung. Even more so than the previous one. The Hindu nationalists, the BJP party and its allies are in the lead with 250 seats in a House of 543. But the majority eludes them. At the same time, the Congress, a second and the formerly ruling United Front, now a poor third are trying to cobble a coalition to keep the BJP at bay and get into power instead. All eyes are on Rashtrapati Bhavan, the Indian Presidential palace. Because the President alone can decide which side is to be given a first chance to have a crack at government formation.

Meanwhile, here at the Congress office, things have just started stirring. The rain drenched ground outside wears a dreary look. Makes us wonder where will the Congress leaders meet the press because the ground outside was the hub of whatever activity so far.

The claims of both sides are more or less evenly balanced in terms of numbers. Each needs a few more supporters to reach the magic figure of 272. This opens up the danger of what is called as horse-trading. However, according to all constitutional norms and precedents as also demands of democratic morality, the BJP's claim to be the first to be asked has validity. This is so because the election may not have produce a victor, but it has clearly voted against the United Front which should not try to sneak into power by the back door. Moreover, the BJP had formed this alliances before the poll and had put all his cards before the voters. The congress and the UF had roundly abused each other during the campaign. And they cannot therefore claim to have become friends overnight. The alliances formed before the polls have certainly have greater sanctity though this cannot be sole criterion to be weighed by the President.

A Rashtrapati Bhavan official just told Rediff that the President will invite any party to form the next government only after the completion of the poll process including Jammu and Kashmir. The President will notify the formation of the new Lok Sabha after the Election Commission submits the winners's list to Rashtrapati Bhavan. Therefore, the next prime minister is likely to be sworn in only after March 8.

Mr Malhotra: Good morning, Sir. I just wanted to ask you: Is it such a Presidential dilemma as many have been implying. I would have thought the President would call the single largest party, hence the BJP.

Sai: I just gave you the inside story on how Pramod's defeat was, "welcomed," here. There isn't any kind of animosity against Jaswant as there is against Pramod. It is quite obvious that workers either stabbed Pramod in the back or they didn't ensure his victory...

Rediff Team, Congress>> Which means Advani's scheduling of the formal election of the BJP Parliamentar Party leader, slated for Saturday, is not late after all....

Do you, Mr Malhotra, subscribe to the theory that this election is the semifinal, and the next election will be the real thing?

There is yet another consideration of significance. There are dissensions even within the UF on the desirability of joining hands with the Congress. THe CM of the southern state of Andhra, where his 'main enemy is the Congress' is particularly reluctant and had said so. In the Congress also, leaders like Madhavrao Scindia, former ruler of a princely state, feel that the BJP ought to be allowed to form a government and then fall under the weight of its own contradictions.

Prem: Not at all. We think Mr Advani must have foreseen the likely situation after the results were declared. But as we understand from our colleagues at the BJP HQ, it is this quarter that is seeing more activity than the AICC office. Of course, who doesn't know that such kinds of meetings which include wooing allies hardly ever happen in party offices.

Thanks, Nikhil, the usual practice is to ask the largest single party. But it is not mandatory for the President to do so. Last time in 1996 when Vajpayee was so invited, disaster followed. His government did not last more than 13 days. The Constituion also requires the President to appoint a prime minister the individual who in his opinion has the best chance of commanding a majority in the Lok Sabha. In 1989, the Congress led by Rajiv was the largest party. Rajiv, on his own, had told the President that he did not want to form a government at that stage.

Mr Malhotra: I am sure the BJP realises the consequences of forming a government that will collapse under its own contradictions, so why is it anxious to form a government? Does it believe that it will consolidate itself as a party with a difference when it is in power?

Amberish: Good morning, Amberish. You are quite right, the belated move by the Congress and the Left party in the UF to rig up a coalition only for the sake of keeping the BJP out of power is clearly immoral politically as well as otherwise.

Mr Vajpayee, on telly, says discussions are on among the alliance partners to formulate a common minimum programme, and he does not anticipate "any difficulty on any point". Asked about Romesh Bhandari -- "what is your view as next PM?" -- ABV says, "Let the time come, you will know." Presumably, so will Bhandari.

Mr Malhotra: If the non-BJP units were to gang up and produce letters supporting the Congress -- which shows that the numbers are with them -- will the President *have* to call them, or can he still go by the single largest party theory?

Nikhil: You are quite right whoever is invited first certainly has an advantage. The BJP does run a lot of risk because those whose support it can ask for a very high price. But once in the saddle Vajpayee hopes to stabilise his government. He also believes that he can do so without resort to dubious methods for which Narasimha Rao is now paying the price for having stabilised his government in the past. Please remember, that Rao began with 220 members of the Lok Sabha. Vajpayee has 250.

Among the Congress satraps, Mr Pawar has the support of most of Maharashtra's 33 MPs plus the RPI's 4 MPs plus the Samajwadi's 22 MPs. Don't you think Mr Malhotra that Mr Pawar has the best chance to be the CPP leader? So why then is there a feeling that he may be sidelined by Sonia Gandhi?